Reaction to the 2nd National Infrastructure Assessment

This piece is by our managing director Tom Lees.

The National Infrastructure Commission (NIC) has published its second National Infrastructure Assessment (202 pages - found here). This important document provides the government with independent expert advice about infrastructure over the next decade or so.

The NIC is set a 'fiscal remit' (total % of GDP to be spend on infrastructure) of 1.3% of GDP. They say their plans fit within that remit. The NIC doesn't set policy but advises. Ministers are obliged to publish a written response (no timescales).

Having read through the whole assessment, it has a tonne of great analysis, modelling and recommendations. There are a few key takeaways to flag:

Interesting points of context

  • No reservoirs have been built in England in the last 30 years.

  • Over the last 40 years investment in the UK averaged 19% of GDP, the lowest in the G7.

  • Electric car sales have increased from 1% in 2015 to 16% in 2022. 

  • Since 2010 the UK has deployed over 13GW of offshore wind and now has the second largest offshore wind fleet in the world. 

  • Since 2012 time to get a DCO has increased by 65% (from 2.6 to 4.2 years on average) and the rate of judicial review has reached 60% from a long-term average of 10%.

  • Currently around 80% of the energy demand (electricity, heating, driving etc) is met by fossil fuels (petrol, gas, oil), although our electricity generation now produces 75% less emissions that in 1990.

  • The government will have spent around £30bn on subsidising household energy bills by the time the energy price guarantees wind down fully.

  • One of the key reasons this is so high and our energy was so badly 'shocked' was because we had no gas storage.

  • By 2035, modelling suggests that around 60GW of offshore wind and 70GW of solar generation will be needed.

Policy recommendations

  • A BIG no to hydrogen heating homes. Full support for heat pumps and getting on with their deployment where we have fallen behind. Want subsidies for those on low incomes.

  • The NIC want massive spending on (up to £4.5bn per year) insulation/energy efficiency.

  • Prioritising funding on maintenance and repairs of current assets.

  • Want a 'core network' to transmit and store hydrogen and carbon with hubs in Grangemouth and North East Scotland, Teesside, Humberside, Merseyside, the Peak District and Southampton

  • There should be a real focus (£22bn) on improving transport infrastructure in England's largest cities:  Birmingham, Bristol, Leeds and Manchester

  • Government should develop a new  25TWh 'strategic energy reserve' (i.e. gas/hydrogen storage) to support resilience to economic shocks.

  • They want a 'national integrated strategy for interurban transport', including a pipeline of strategic improvements to the road and rail networks over the next 30 years.

  • Major planning needs to be radically reformed and sped up (recommendations about guidance, sharing environmental data, standard community benefits).

  • National Policy Statements need to be updated at least every 5 years (an put that in law).

  • We need a strategic spatial energy plan (that needs to be regularly updated.)

  • Onshore wind should be added to the NSIP regime.

  • They think cities need to reduce car journeys by introducing more congestion charges/workplace parking levies.

  • Their 'house view' is still sceptical on large nuclear power. Remain open-minded on SMRs etc.

  • The NIC want the energy system largely run on wind/solar with 60GW of 'short-term flexible capacity' (gas/hydrogen) to smooth out when the sun doesn't shine/wind doesn't blow.

How closely the government listen to the NIC’s recommendations or indeed how closely a potential incoming Labour government listen is yet to be seen.

Dylan Winn-Brown

Dylan Winn-Brown is a freelance web developer & Squarespace Expert based in the City of London. 

https://winn-brown.co.uk
Previous
Previous

Why is the National Infrastructure Commission so against hydrogen in homes?

Next
Next

What the public thinks about HS2